Plutarch’s Weblog

December 13, 2007

Huckabee’s weight loss scam summary

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: — plutarch01 @ 12:41 am

Seeing as my original post is over 5,000 words, I figured a summary might be helpful.

“If a man’s dishonest to obtain a job, he’ll be dishonest on the job.”

Mike Huckabee

Between June 2003 to June 2004 Mike Huckabee lost 110 lbs., dropping from 290 to 180 lbs. He attributed his weight loss to diet and exercise. Based on the premise that “if I can lose weight, anyone can, Huckabee launched the Healthy Arkansas anti-obesity initiative and authored a “How I did it,” diet book. Huckabee embarked upon a public relations blitz, makingfitness and weight control his signature issue…, and never stray[ing] far from his own example. The name recognition that this PR effort gained (along with no longer being obese) elevated Huckabee’s long-shot candidacy from risible to somewhat plausible.

It has been rumored that Huckabee’s weight loss was due not to diet and exercise but to gastric bypass (bariatric) surgery. This blog seeks to examine the evidence that is publicly available, to determine whether weight loss from diet/exercise or bariatric surgery is more likely. Because evidence such as witnesses, money trail, etc are lacking, the analysis is primarily medical. The principle used is the Law of Parsimony, a medical application of Occam’s Razor, in which the validity of a diagnosis is gauged by the degree to which it explains all the clinical findings, without the need to add further diagnoses.

The findings are as follows:

  • Huckabee’s vague history of diet/exercise doesn’t adequately explain his astonishing result.
  • Massive and persistent weight loss with bariatric surgery is about 100x more common than with diet/exercise.
  • Bariatric surgery has a highly characteristic weight loss pattern that Huckabee’s weight loss record fits exactly for rapidity, amount and maintenance. This pattern is not at all like that of diet/exercise.
  • Huckabee demonstrates changes in physical appearance that appear bariatric both in general and the specific (hair loss and skin changes).
  • His particular diet habits are tellingly bariatric.
  • Just prior to his rapid weight loss he took an unusual vacation with a furtive itinerary and end date which provided a plausible window for a private hospitalization and recovery.
  • The marathon prowess that Huckabee often touts is not so likely to be an example of exercise inducing weight loss, as it is the expected result of (bariatric) weight loss permitting exercise.
  • While running marathons Huckabee is shown carrying that energy supplementation, that is both expected of, and associated with, bariatric marathoners.
  • The lack of any identified witnesses to the bariatric surgery/hospitalization is adequately explained by medical privacy ethical standards as well as the rigor of Federal HIPAA privacy regulations.

In applying the above mentioned Law of Parsimony, it is evident that the one explanation of bariatric surgery readily, even exactly, satisfies every clinical finding.

Diet/exercise alone is not sufficient to explain the findings; its use as a explanation depends on first compiling a series of highly improbable findings (rapid, massive weight loss), and then introducing new conditions and diagnoses (e.g. rare hernias, hair loss). Making the clinical finding fit bariatric surgery is as effortless as diet/exercise is labored.

If Huckabee did have bariatric surgery, the secret will be unlikely to survive a general election campaign. Huckabee has made his weight loss not just a personal health matter, but a defining saga, a prominent part of his Presidential resume, the subject of a profitable (scam?) diet book, and a model for his public policy as Governor. Its disclosure would be an admission of fraud and deceit that would be to Democrats an inestimable advantage.

Presidential candidates have an obligation to their Party and to voters and to disclose any medical condition that may have an effect on their candidacy, e.g., as did Thompson regarding his lymphoma. Since Huckabee’s spokeswoman has made ambiguous comments regarding the possibility of bariatric surgery, and since the evidence does not appear to favor diet/exercise, Huckabee needs to clarify for the record whether any surgery contributed to his weight loss, and this made disclosure made prior to the GOP primaries.

To this end, medical records would be helpful, which could be as simple as making available the film and radiologist’s report of the barium swallow CT scan he most likely underwent to diagnose his hernia in 2005.

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79 Comments »

  1. Man, you’ve done a crackerjack brief of circumstantial evidence.

    If you’re not an oppo research pro, somebody should snap you up pronto!

    Comment by Emphyrio — December 13, 2007 @ 2:35 pm

  2. Was it YOU that started the rumor? This is the first time I’ve heard any of this.

    Comment by Net — December 13, 2007 @ 9:36 pm

  3. Emphyrio– No, I am not an oppo research pro. I doubt any pro would have ever been able to get away with billing for all the time I spent on this esoteric topic, and a pro would have figured out how to make his case in a lot less than 5000 words, then wouldn’t have made it the initial post on a blog that no one had ever heard of.

    Net– Well, I guess so. It had been out there as that, a rumor with little substantiation. There were several places on the internet (see links in blog) it was discussed, but most of these a while a ago. It occurred to me about a month ago that Huckabee’s weight loss was the result of gastric bypass surgery. So I started looking into it, and the more I looked the more it seemed obvious that his weight loss was surgical. In order to write this all down with hyperlinks I started this blog. I published it on Monday, prior to which a Google search would have yielded nothing recent. Note however that nothing in the blog is based on rumor, instead I’ve based everything on analysis of facts. So, I hope it represents an upgrade from from rumor to hunch.

    Comment by plutarch01 — December 13, 2007 @ 11:03 pm

  4. Plutarch — put a link to your original 5000-word post in that first sentence.

    Comment by FlyLeft — December 19, 2007 @ 10:54 am

  5. [...] how Mike Huckabee went on a special liquid diet and lost 110 lbs. in just one year?  Well, um, about that… It has been rumored that Huckabee’s weight loss was due not to diet and exercise but to gastric [...]

    Pingback by Multi Medium » Huckabariatric? — December 19, 2007 @ 5:02 pm

  6. brilliant work! One more problem for Huck to duck!

    Comment by calscientist — December 19, 2007 @ 5:32 pm

  7. Well you sound as convincing as Dr. House. Are you a doctor or just a striking television writer?

    Comment by jerry — December 19, 2007 @ 8:03 pm

  8. Jerry– Well, yes, I am a doctor. My field has nothing to do with bariatrics, except that for some reason a majority of my patients are obese, and nearly 10% have had gastric bypass surgery. As I am interviewing, I don’t get to the surgical history until the third page of my outline. I can usually predict correctly if they’ve had gastric bypass surgery before I get to the third page.

    I’ve seen hundreds of patients who lost >100 lbs. through gastric bypass surgery, and none through diet/exercise. You probably also personally know of many of the former and none of the latter. Common things happen commonly, and it is a lot more common for a politician to falsify his credentials than it is for anyone to have and maintain a 100 lb weight loss.

    Comment by plutarch01 — December 19, 2007 @ 8:53 pm

  9. Thanks for responding actually, I appreciate that. I used to love House, but by the 5th or 6th episode I realized I understood more Star Trek explanations than House explanations and so it lost a bit for me.

    I’ll just swap polarities of the deflector grid and sweep those Berthold rays away now.

    Thanks again.

    Comment by jerry — December 20, 2007 @ 7:56 am

  10. I lost about 120 lbs from diet and exercise (I started biking 2 hours per day, every day and adopted a low fat diet) over the course of 2 years and kept it off for 5 until I was in a car accident and rendered unable to walk for about 9 months. Loosing a lot of weight is difficult (I’ve sense lost about 30 of the 120 that I gained back) but certainly possible. A year does seem really fast to lose 110 lbs. It took me 2 and I was working pretty hard at it.

    Comment by Winston — December 20, 2007 @ 9:38 am

  11. The evidence coming out now points to Mike Huckabee being a fraud.

    Comment by dlddustin — December 20, 2007 @ 11:53 am

  12. Several months ago I mentioned Huckabee’s weight loss to a colleague I knew to be from Arkansas. Her response was a little stunning: “He’s as phony as Clinton. You can lose a hundred pounds if you have your stomach stapled.” That drove me to the Internet, where I found zero corroboration. But I didn’t forget her response, and this detective piece is more plausible if locals had a whiff back at the time Huck shrank, or got shrunk.

    Comment by Conrad — December 20, 2007 @ 10:31 pm

  13. How come I don’t hear this all over the news. we have a right to know if he is making big money off those books on how to loose weight and he just had his stomach stapled. He is making good money on amazon because his number is really low and that means he is selling a lot.

    Tom

    Comment by Tom — December 21, 2007 @ 3:51 pm

  14. Tom—
    You don’t hear this all over the news because no reporter has asked Huckabee whether or not he had weight loss surgery. Every journalist has just taken Huckabee’s word for it. Maybe they figure that since he is a Baptist minister, that means he would never lie. Huckabee needs to be asked first of all, and if he denies, ask him details about the Spigelian hernia. Was that diagnosed with a barium swallow CT scan? If yes, can we see the scan and the radiologists report?

    Comment by plutarch01 — December 21, 2007 @ 4:26 pm

  15. My daughter in law lost 100 lbs in a little less than a year on the same regimen that Mike Huckabee used, as have many others, I believe, at the UAMS program in Little Rock. And she had to do it by diet alone, because she has a medical condition that prevents her doing strenuous exercise. It is a very restrictive diet, using food supplements, behaviour modification techniques and group therapy sessions. It requires total dedication. It can be done.

    Comment by lindylou — December 22, 2007 @ 9:50 pm

  16. Lindylou—
    Congratulations to your daughter-in-law! My article mentions that there ARE people who do lose >100 lbs in a year without gastric bypass. So there are examples, but gastric bypass is still about 100x as common. Did your daughter-in-law lose 75 lbs. in the first six months? Did she lose 100 lbs. down to a normal weight? Has she maintained her 100 lb. weight loss for several years? Did she lose hair? Her muscles atrophy? Does she look washed out? Did need surgery for an abdominal hernia? Is she never seen eating any meal larger than about 8 oz? Probably not. But even if so, her example would still be the exception that proves the rule that the vast majority of people with these findings have had gastric bypass.

    All Huckabee has to do to prove his weight loss is like your daughter-in-laws is release the CT scan he likely had in 2005. If that shows that his stomach is unmolested, then we can all applaud Huckabee for a truly amazing weight loss achievement.

    Comment by plutarch01 — December 22, 2007 @ 10:20 pm

  17. Plutarch,

    Keep up the great work. We’ll need this if the fraud/snake oil salesman continues making inroads to the naive
    electorate. I live in Little Rock and have been aware of the Huckster’s Jerry Swaggart “appeal” for some time.
    God help the country if he’s anywhere on the GOP ticket.

    Comment by NoToHuck — December 26, 2007 @ 8:19 pm

  18. Plutarch is probably being paid by Hillary and/or Democrats. Get a life!

    Comment by Lillie — December 27, 2007 @ 4:38 pm

  19. Lillie,

    Do you live in Arkansas? Have you been subjected to the “Huckster” for 10 years?
    Have your state taxes been raised 60 percent under Huckabee’s dictorial regime?

    You’re a twit. You get a life, dumbass!!!!!!!

    Comment by NoToHuck — December 27, 2007 @ 9:14 pm

  20. Plutarch, you make me love the Internet!

    Comment by Jens — December 28, 2007 @ 9:42 am

  21. [...] Hugely convincing data that candidate Huckabee didn’t lose 100+ lbs by dieting, as he says, but by surgery. [...]

    Pingback by dispatches from TJICistan » Blog Archive » interesting — December 31, 2007 @ 4:46 am

  22. I suspected the bypass surgery for a long time now. What is with the hernia surgery? Is that a common problem after the bypass?.
    Huckabee is the biggest fraud running for President. He’s not going anywhere.
    (and I’mm a Republican)

    Comment by nancy evans — December 31, 2007 @ 8:16 am

  23. WGAFF?

    Huck’s policies and past history are bad enough, let me suggest concentrating on those.

    Comment by TLB — December 31, 2007 @ 10:36 am

  24. Excellent analysis. I wanted to comment on the last paragraph about reviewing the ‘barium swallow CT scan’ report. They are two totally different studies (barium swallow and CT)While a patient undergoing an abdominal CT scan will , in most cases, ingest a diluted barium solution prior to the scan, this isn’t the same as a dedicated barium swallow which would be performed with a thicker barium solution and imaged with a fluoroscopic unit. Either study would clearly show the post operative changes associated with gastric bypass surgery.

    Comment by Radiologist — December 31, 2007 @ 3:22 pm

  25. Your explanation sounds plausible, but then again anything with a few medical terms would to someone like me without a medical degree. What I like, however, is how it can all be confirmed, or disproven by releasing the medical scans of his stomach. The scans exist, and they either show a stapled or completely untouched stomach.

    It seems highly ironic that we read about the possibility that Huckabee is pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes in regards to his weight loss right as he is claiming that if a person is dishonest in obtaining a job he can’t be trusted to be honest while he has the job. It looks to me like Huckabee’s the one who can’t be trusted.

    Comment by Arnold Pants — December 31, 2007 @ 5:12 pm

  26. Radiologist—
    Thanks for your input. I’d appreciate your opinion of what radiological studies were likely performed to diagnose either a preoperative Spigelian or incisional hernia. Would any study other than CT have been performed, such as ultrasound? Would a ultrasound report necessarily reveal gastric bypass surgery as well? Does this all hold for LAP-BAND? Circa 2005, are all radiological images likely available electronically via email? If an image or report was obtained, how could if be verified to actually be Huckabee’s?

    Comment by plutarch01 — December 31, 2007 @ 5:21 pm

  27. Don’t hold your breath on getting the medical records. Bill Clinton never did release any of his or explain why he didn’t make available the same information other presidents have.

    Comment by Tom Scott — December 31, 2007 @ 6:30 pm

  28. BS! My friend Martha has lost 240 pounds so far on NutriSystem! She is Hulahoowho on the NS discussion boards – you can see her before & after pictures as proof! Her insurance would never cover the surgery so she did it herself!

    Personally I can’t stand Huckabee, but I remember when he first issued the “challenge” to his state, and the pictures they showed on a regular basis. If he’d had the surgery, he’d have lost 100 pounds MUCH quicker than 1 year: several of my co-workers had it, and both of them lost closer to 200 pounds in a year. The first 100 dropped off in less than 6 months.

    Based on my own personal experience, I actually believe the guy (altho I don’t want him as president).

    Comment by mzhelen — January 1, 2008 @ 11:35 am

  29. As a physician who sees many morbidly obese patients, I would concur that his weight loss most likely comes from gastric banding and not diet.

    Comment by Heymoore — January 2, 2008 @ 1:49 pm

  30. The underlying principal of gastric restrictive surgery is to reduce the capacity of the gastric lumen (alone, in the case of the Lap band procedure). While the gastric bypass procedure goes a step further and creates a malabsorptive state via the Roux-en-Y bypass. Both procedures alter the GI tract and therefore can be easily detected on an Upper GI series (Barium study) or abdominal CT scan. Ultrasonography would not be useful in this setting. US can, however, detect abdominal wall incisional herinae related to the laparoscopy ports.
    CT scans and US images are digital in nature while barium studies are either cut film or digital in nature depending on the unit used. All images are labeled with the patient’s name, medical record number , date of exam and usually the name of the institution where the study was acquired. CT / US images also contain data that relate to the imaging parameters used at the time of imaging. That said, most digital images can be ‘anonomized’ usually for the purpose of education presentations where the patient data is withheld for privacy reasons.
    One final note, a simple xray of the abdomen may show a metallic staple line in the expected location of the gastric pouch. A staple line in this location is virtually pathognomonic of a gastric bypass procedure.
    PS
    If you want more information regarding the postoperative appearance of gastric bypass procedures, check out the following article:

    Christopher D. Scheirey, Francis J. Scholz, Paresh C. Shah, David M. Brams, Brian B. Wong, and Michael Pedrosa
    Radiology of the Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass Procedure: Conceptualization and Precise Interpretation of Results
    RadioGraphics, Sep 2006; 26: 1355 – 1371.

    Comment by Radiologist — January 5, 2008 @ 2:43 pm

  31. [...] Loss Story Bogus? He Dieted for Our Sins–Or Did He? Republican Undernews! Did Huckabee go bariatric? Plutarch makes the (surprisingly non-weak) case with photos and graphs. … P.S.: The Arkansas [...]

    Pingback by Huckabee a huckster? « Wayward Fundamentalist Christian — January 6, 2008 @ 12:08 am

  32. Any chance that he just overstated his initial weight? I haven’t followed this closely so I’m not sure how well it was all documented. Lying about the actual numbers is still a potential fraud, but more easy to stomach.

    Comment by Rob — January 11, 2008 @ 11:53 am

  33. I am a RyGB patient — had my operation on 7-31-07. To date, I have lost 127 pounds and still going. My goal is 130 and I am only 65 pounds from there.

    Who care if Huck had the surgery. It’s a very personal choice and not something he or anyone else who has been through should have to elaborate on unless they want (and are comforable doing so).

    I am proud of my decision because it has changed my life. I tried other methods all my life…and finally after 30 years, I have found something that worked for me. It’s not right for everyone — I get that.

    But, don’t harrang someone for their personal decision. I lead a perfectly normal, healthy life. No complications whatsoever.

    Leave the Huck alone. He’s a good man.

    Comment by RyGBmiracle — March 15, 2008 @ 8:31 am

  34. I hope he was honest and did not cheat. The safe way is always proper diet and exercise.

    Comment by G Coker — June 25, 2008 @ 12:17 pm

  35. Why does it matter? He is much healthier and running marathons.

    Comment by Anonymous — July 20, 2008 @ 11:33 pm

  36. The best way to keep fit is to exercise and having proper diet. Most of us follow any one and not both and gradually put on weight.

    Comment by Mikaella V — August 14, 2008 @ 3:59 am

  37. So true, so true. Thanks for that.

    Comment by Weight loss notepad — September 17, 2008 @ 4:59 am

  38. Eat grilled or boiled meat such as steak and chicken instead of fried meat.

    Comment by How To Loose Weight Fast — December 12, 2008 @ 5:10 pm

  39. It might be nice to put together a little Youtube video to get this data out there for next political season.

    Comment by Anonymous — December 19, 2008 @ 11:34 am

  40. I want to make the general public aware of Quick Weight Loss Centers. While I cant say they are an outright scam, you will lose weight if you follow their program, its not a program I would recommend to anybody. Its very expensive and if you go off the program even a little you will gain weight and very rapidly.

    When you sign up for the plan you are given a meal plan and a ton of very expensive supplements. Then you go into their center and weigh in several times a week. My first clue that the program probably wouldn’t work should have been the overweight “counselors” that were at the center I went to. I gave them the benefit of the doubt and thought maybe the have once been even larger than they currently were and were in the process of losing weight on the Quick Weight Loss plan. One claimed to have lost weight using the plan (she was the smallest but still by no means thin by my standards) and another claimed she was on the plan but I saw her at Target recently (after about 9 months) and she is still as fat as always.

    Anyway, like I said, you will lose weight if you follow the meal plan but it’s a plan that is impossible for anybody to stick with long term. They claim that once you reach your goal weight you can slowly add back in “normal” foods under their supervision but I don’t see how you would ever keep your weight off if you did that. Its not like once your body reaches some magic weight you are going to be able to eat the foods that would cause you gain weight when you went off plan when you were losing weight.

    I think the goal of Quick Weight Loss is to keep you on their plan long term because one of the many products they sell is their “lifetime maintenance program.” Why would you need that if once you lost your weight you would have the ability to keep it off? After all they claim they are teaching you to “eat right.”

    The biggest part of their plan and the biggest money makers for them are the pricey supplements they push on you. I only had 25 lbs to lose and my plan with supplements cost almost $2000. It seemed every time I went in (3 times a week) they were trying to sell me something which really irked me. The whole reason I even got on their plan in the first place was so I could get off RX diet pills (ie supplements.) Had I wanted to keep buying diet products I would have never tried Quick Weight Loss. I haven’t been into their office/store in almost 9 months and every single week one of their “counselors” will call me (I let it go to voicemail) with some special they are having on some supplement.

    Before anybody pays for the Quick Weight Loss program I would recommend you just go to your family doctor and have a health assessment and ask for an RX of phentermine (your doctor is qualified to say if you are healthy enough to take it or not) and an eating plan. Then buy a good pair of walking shoes and hit the pavement. In the long run (no pun intended) you will save a ton of money and see real long term results.

    Comment by Jenn — December 22, 2008 @ 7:21 pm

  41. Thanks very much for your article about weight loss…

    I have bookmarked this page for any future posts you might add about this topic again. Thanks,

    Nigel

    Comment by Nigel — December 27, 2008 @ 4:40 am

  42. I am an OR nurse and can tell you that Spigelian hernias are not rare at all…

    Comment by RN — June 2, 2009 @ 1:40 pm

  43. Well, there are many ways to lose weigh unfortunatelly many weight loss diets will make you lose weight as a muscle as opposed to fat. So what is important is to learn how to lose fat, preserve and build muscles — that is the only way you can shrink belly fat and stop yo-yo dieting…Just my 2 cents

    Comment by Shrink Belly Fat Website — September 8, 2009 @ 12:06 am

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    Comment by sandrar — September 10, 2009 @ 4:57 am

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  46. [...] is ample evidence that Huckabee’s weight loss was a scam. [ READ MORE [...]

    Pingback by To FAT Mike Huckabee: Shut The HUCK Up! | PoliticalArticles.NET — September 14, 2009 @ 10:33 pm

  47. Lots of of people blog about this topic but you said really true words.

    Comment by Schnarchen Blog — December 8, 2009 @ 3:52 pm

  48. I admire your article. It contains precious piece of information . Thanks for posting.

    Comment by Howard — December 31, 2009 @ 5:09 am

  49. You have really made a lot of fuss about your weight loss.
    However you did it, I hope you keep it under control.

    Comment by weight loss — May 27, 2010 @ 2:35 am

  50. One question: did you or did you not.
    Corollary question: how did you really or how not.

    Comment by weight loss — May 27, 2010 @ 11:51 pm

  51. Wow you really have done your homework!Nice that you have put so much effort in this and share this huckabee story!

    Comment by vannie — June 27, 2010 @ 10:43 am

  52. I’m not sure how I feel about him and what he says about reducing all that belly fat. You can lose a lot of weight really fast if you obviously don’t eat and exercise a lot. I had a friend who did it in one summer because he had to get ready for the Marines. But he ate nothing but an apple and oatmeal once a day and ran all summer. He lost 80 pounds

    Comment by Jared — July 22, 2010 @ 9:55 am

  53. I hate diet scams with a passion! The post was long, but very well done.

    Comment by Charles — September 29, 2010 @ 6:28 am

  54. I do not think thatHuckabee is willing to disclose their medical records, because it would be tantamount to admitting that he lied and probably would not have credibility as a politician. I agree with your analysis that significant weight loss over one year is a result of bariatric surgery.

    Comment by Leo Avila — October 7, 2010 @ 11:05 am

  55. Great post! I found it very helpful and inspiring. Very good info.

    Comment by CD — November 4, 2010 @ 6:00 pm

  56. This is a very good post; one that I believe many could benefit from reading.

    Comment by Tommy T — November 4, 2010 @ 6:00 pm

  57. Saw Huckabee while flipping through channels the other day, he is gaining the weight. He was promoting a deep fryer, looked like an informecial passing as a news show.

    Comment by Stellaa — November 7, 2010 @ 11:21 am

  58. You made me curious about your 5000 word post!…

    You have a link for it?

    Good one this though.

    Cheers!

    Comment by Judy — November 12, 2010 @ 7:52 am

  59. [...] his mediocre “confederate presidential bid” to the delusional G.O.P. fools. There is ample evidence that Huckabee’s weight loss was a [...]

    Pingback by ‘Cockamamie’ Scam-Artist Newton Leroy Gingrich Rolls Out Presidential Bid as Mike Huckabee Plays Obama ‘Madrassa’ Card To Republican Bigots | PoliticalArticles.NET — March 4, 2011 @ 3:08 am

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